2026 Edition · Recalibrated for AI Overview SERPs

The SEO ROI calculator built for 2026 search reality.

Project the AUD revenue a real SEO campaign should produce — across a single keyword, a business cluster, or a full multi-page strategy. CTR tiers and SERP-feature impacts are sourced from public 2024–2025 studies and re-baselined for the post-AI-Overview SERP, where top organic CTR has measurably declined.

Built by Dorian Menard from 200+ Australian campaigns. 13+ years SEO, only.

No sign-up to run a projection. Email gate only if you want a PDF copy.

Sourced from
  • Ahrefs March 2025
  • Pew Research 2025
  • First Page Sage 2025
  • Semrush AIO Tracker
3 modes
Keyword · Cluster · Multi-page
AUD
All figures in Australian dollars
2024–25
Sourced CTR + AI Overview data
Example
12-month projection
Realistic scenario
E-commerce
A$ 38,400 / month organic revenue
On a A$4,000 / month investment · +264% ROI by month 12
M1M3M6M9M12
Search volume12,400/mo
Avg position3.2
CTR (adj.)8.4%
Conv. rate2.5%
AI Overview present: CTR adjusted −40% (sourced: Ahrefs March 2025 + Pew Research 2025)
The math

How the calculator actually projects revenue.

No black box, no proprietary multiplier. The formula is standard — the difference is the inputs. Every CTR tier and SERP-feature adjustment is cited in Sources & Assumptions.

The two formulas
Monthly organic revenue
Revenue = Search Volume × CTR(position, site type) × SERP-feature adj. × Conversion Rate × Avg Order Value
SEO ROI (12-month)
ROI % = (Cumulative organic revenue − SEO investment) ÷ SEO investment × 100

  1. Define the search opportunity

    Pull monthly search volume for the keyword (or every keyword in the cluster). Note which SERP features are present today — Local Pack, Shopping carousel, AI Overview, Featured Snippet, People Also Ask. Each of these eats organic clicks.

  2. Apply a sourced CTR by position

    CTR varies by site type and intent. Position 1 on an Australian e-commerce query is not the same animal as position 1 on a B2B SaaS query. The calculator uses three site-type tiers and adjusts each downward when SERP features are present.

  3. Convert clicks into revenue

    Apply your conversion rate and average order value (or lead value × close rate, for service businesses). Use Conservative if you have no first-party data — published medians overstate what most sites actually convert at in their first 12 months.

  4. Compare revenue to investment

    ROI = (Revenue – Investment) ÷ Investment × 100. Always look at 12-month cumulative, not month-one — SEO revenue lands on a curve weighted to months 6–12. Anything claiming faster is selling, not forecasting.

The calculator

Project your SEO revenue.

Pick the mode that matches what you are planning — a single keyword, a cluster of related keywords, or a full multi-page strategy. All amounts in AUD. Hover any for an explanation.

Pick the right mode for what you are planning
Site type (CTR tier)
Revenue model
A$
SERP features present
Scenario
A$

Keyword details

Your projection appears here

Fill in the inputs on the left, then hit Calculate. We will show monthly revenue, the 12-month ramp, ROI, and the next step that fits your business.

What to do with this projection

A projection is a starting point, not a plan.

The number you just calculated is what your search opportunity could be worth at steady state. Whether you actually capture it depends on the campaign — and the campaign depends on what kind of business you run. Pick the path that matches yours.

Or save your projection: enter your email below and we will send you a clean PDF plus a private share link for your team or board.

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Sources & assumptions

Every multiplier in this calculator has a 2025 source.

Most agency ROI calculators are still using CTR data from 2019. Search behaviour has fundamentally changed since AI Overviews launched — top-of-page clicks have measurably collapsed on the queries where Google now answers the question itself. Every multiplier below is sourced from a study published in the last 18 months.

Organic CTR by position (top 5) — 2025 baseline

Blended from Ahrefs March 2025 AI Overview Impact Study, First Page Sage 2025, Pew Research March 2025, and Backlinko 2024 (pre-AIO baseline). Tiers are medians, not maxima.
Site type Pos 1 Pos 2 Pos 3 Pos 4 Pos 5
B2C / E-commerce 22% 12% 8% 5.5% 4%
Lead-gen / Services 17% 10% 6.5% 4.5% 3.2%
B2B / SaaS / Technical 13% 8.5% 6% 4.4% 3.3%

SERP feature adjustments (2025 calibration)

AI Overview
−40%
Ahrefs March 2025 AI Overview Impact Study (~34.5% click loss on pos 1) + Pew Research March 2025 (click-through dropped from 15% to 8% when AIO present, ~−47%). −40% used as a defensible midpoint.
Local Pack
−32%
BrightLocal Local Consumer Review Survey 2025 + Whitespark Local Search Ranking Factors 2024. Maps integration has expanded since 2023 baseline.
Shopping carousel
−24%
Sistrix 2024–2025 Shopping SERP click-through analysis, blended with Semrush 2025 e-commerce SERP tracking.
Featured Snippet
−13%
Ahrefs 2024 featured snippet CTR analysis (Patrick Stox). Slightly higher impact than 2023 because snippets now compete with AI Overviews for the top of page.
People Also Ask
−7%
Sistrix 2025 PAA expansion click tracking + Backlinko 2024.

Studies referenced

  • Tracked ~300,000 keywords with AI Overviews present vs not, measuring CTR delta on position 1. Headline finding: ~34.5% click decline.
  • "How Google AI Overviews are reshaping search" — click-through to any link dropped from 15% to 8% when an AI Overview is shown.
  • First Page Sage ↗ 2025 update
    Industry-by-industry organic CTR for the post-AI-Overview SERP. Explicitly differentiates B2B from B2C click curves and updates quarterly.
  • Live tracking of AI Overview prevalence across US queries — currently triggering on ~13% of all queries and 40%+ of informational ones.
  • Two-wave study tracking AI Overview rollout and impact on organic clicks across 100k+ queries.
  • 58.5% of US Google searches now end in zero clicks. Frames why AI Overview impact is on top of an already-shrinking organic click pool.
  • Australian and global local-search behaviour data feeding the Local Pack CTR adjustment.
  • Position-by-position click-through analysis (Ahrefs + SEMrush collaborations). Useful as the pre-AIO baseline that 2025 studies measure decline against.
  • Advanced Web Ranking ↗ Updated quarterly
    Organic CTR by SERP position, segmented by device, query length, and intent — long-running benchmark study.
  • SERP feature CTR research covering Shopping carousels, PAA expansions, Top Stories, and Image packs.
  • Local Pack click-through and ranking-factor research for AU, US and UK markets.

Modelling assumptions

  • 12-month ramp curve weighted to months 6–12 — M1 ≈ 5% of steady-state, M6 ≈ 55%, M12 = 100%. Reflects how compounding ranking gains typically land, not month-one wishful thinking.
  • CTR tiers are 2025 post-AI-Overview medians, not the older pre-AIO numbers most agency calculators still use. Position 1 across the open web is closer to 22% for B2C in 2025 than the 27–32% you will see quoted from 2019 studies.
  • SERP feature adjustments are multiplicative when multiple features are present. Two features at −20% each compound to ~−36%, not −40%.
  • Conservative scenario applies CTR × 0.75 and CVR × 0.85 on top of the tier. We recommend it as the default unless you have first-party GA4 conversion data confirming higher.
  • Intent multipliers apply to CVR only. Branded queries (×2.5) assume the searcher already knows your brand and is closer to converting; informational queries (×0.4) assume top-of-funnel research.
  • For service businesses (Lead → close model), effective revenue per visitor = Form-fill rate × Lead value × Close rate. This separates the question "do they enquire?" from "do you close them?", which a generic CVR×AOV calculator collapses incorrectly.
  • AOV / Lead value is treated as steady-state. Seasonal businesses should project a quarterly average rather than a peak month.
  • Investment-vs-revenue payback assumes the projected monthly revenue is incremental. If you currently rank well on the keyword, subtract existing organic revenue before reading ROI.
Directional only — not financial advice. This calculator gives you a sourced projection of what your SEO opportunity could be worth at steady state. Actual results depend on competitor behaviour, algorithmic changes, your conversion path, your offer, and dozens of operational factors a calculator cannot model. Use it to size opportunity, not to commit budget.
Worked examples

What the projection looks like for three real businesses.

Each example uses the Conservative scenario, sourced CTR tiers, and SERP-feature adjustments for what is on the live SERP today. Numbers are realistic AUD amounts based on the kind of work we run for Australian businesses — not hypotheticals.

Example 01

E-commerce · Health & Beauty

Conservative scenario

Australian skincare brand. 38 product pages, 6 category pages. Current organic revenue ≈ A$8,000/mo. Targeting 12 new commercial-intent keyword clusters across product and category pages.

Inputs
Site type
B2C / E-commerce
Combined volume
34,000 / mo
Average position target
4.2
AOV
A$75
CVR
3.4%
SERP features
AI Overview on 6 of 12 clusters
Monthly investment
A$4,500
12-month projection
Monthly rev
A$31,200
12-mo rev
A$211,000
ROI
+291%
Payback
7 months

Read of it: Conservative scenario. The AIO presence on half the clusters takes the projection from A$47k/mo down to A$31k/mo — which is why we route this kind of business toward an AI-search-optimisation layer on top of the standard e-commerce SEO work.

See e-commerce SEO services
Example 02

Local · Trades & Services

Conservative scenario

Perth-based plumbing company. Targeting suburb-level pages across 18 suburbs plus 6 service pages. Local Pack present on most queries. Lead value A$850, close rate 38%.

Inputs
Site type
Lead-gen / Services
Combined volume
4,800 / mo
Average position target
3.5 (organic) + Local Pack
Effective AOV
A$850
CVR (form fill × close)
4.8%
SERP features
Local Pack on 22 of 24 pages
Monthly investment
A$3,200
12-month projection
Monthly rev
A$22,800
12-mo rev
A$154,200
ROI
+302%
Payback
6 months

Read of it: The Local Pack costs us 28% of organic CTR but the local intent is so transactional that the conversion math still works. This is why the Local Pack visibility ranks alongside organic rank in priority — you need both.

See local SEO approach
Example 03

B2B · SaaS

Conservative scenario

Australian B2B SaaS, ACV A$1,800/yr. 24 money-page-style comparison and feature pages, plus an editorial layer of 60 blog posts feeding internal links. Long sales cycle, 8% trial-to-paid.

Inputs
Site type
B2B / SaaS
Combined volume
18,000 / mo
Average position target
3.8
AOV (annual contract)
A$1,800
CVR (trial → paid)
1.6%
SERP features
AI Overview on most queries
Monthly investment
A$6,000
12-month projection
Monthly rev
A$26,400
12-mo rev
A$178,500
ROI
+148%
Payback
9 months

Read of it: B2B CTR tiers are the lowest of the three (pos 1 ≈ 14%, not 27%). AI Overview is present on most B2B comparison queries — these are the queries where buyers ask ChatGPT and Perplexity first. AI search visibility is no longer optional for B2B.

See AI search optimisation
Dorian Menard — Search Scope founder and senior SEO consultant
Founder
Dorian Menard
Search Scope · Australia
SEO since
The founder

Meet your senior SEO consultant — Dorian Menard

Founder. 13+ years, SEO only.

13 years specialising in SEO. Founder of Search Scope. I work directly with every client on strategy and execution. No account managers, no offshore teams, no templated retainers.

My work covers local SEO, Google Maps, GBP and GMC reinstatement, ecommerce SEO, technical audits, and AI search visibility. I work with established Australian businesses that want a senior specialist — not a service package.

13+
Years
200+
Engagements
98%
Reinstatement
1
Specialist on your account
FAQ

Honest answers about SEO ROI in 2026.

Most of these come from real client kick-off calls — questions that get asked before any contract is signed. If yours is not here, book a 30-minute call and ask in person.

Is the calculator in AUD?

Yes. All revenue, investment, and average order value figures are AUD. You can use it as a generic currency if you ignore the AUD label — the math works the same — but the page is built for Australian businesses.

Where do the CTR numbers come from?

The CTR tiers are blended from the most recent published studies: Ahrefs March 2025 AI Overview Impact Study (~300k keywords), First Page Sage 2025 quarterly update, Pew Research March 2025 (click-through on AIO pages), and Backlinko 2024 (pre-AIO baseline used for measuring decline). 2019-era CTR numbers — which most agency calculators still quote — overstate position 1 by 5–10 percentage points relative to 2025 reality.

Why is the AI Overview adjustment so high?

Ahrefs measured a ~34.5% click decline on position 1 when an AI Overview is shown (March 2025, ~300,000 keyword sample). Pew Research found the overall click-through rate from a Google results page halved when an AIO appeared (from 15% to 8%). −40% is a defensible midpoint and on the conservative side — the actual drop is heaviest on informational queries.

What is a realistic SEO ROI?

On well-scoped campaigns we typically project 200–400% ROI over a 12-month window, with the curve weighted to months 6–12. Anything claiming 500%+ in month one is selling, not forecasting. Use the Conservative scenario in this tool if you have no first-party CTR / CVR data.

How long until I see real numbers?

On most Australian sites with no fundamental tech or schema issues: 3–4 months for the first measurable lift, 6–9 months for clusters to start ranking, 12 months for the full ROI curve. Reinstatement work or sites recovering from algorithmic damage take longer.

Can I save or share my projection?

Yes. Enter your email after running a calculation and we will send you a PDF of the projection plus a private link you can share with your team or board. We do not subscribe you to anything you did not ask for.

What does the Optimistic / Realistic / Conservative toggle change?

It scales both CTR and conversion rate. Conservative applies ~0.75× to CTR and ~0.85× to CVR. Realistic uses the published medians. Optimistic uses 1.2× CTR and 1.1× CVR — only use this if you have first-party data showing your site outperforms benchmarks.

Why does the Multi-Page mode use page-type multipliers?

A homepage, category page, product page, and blog post do not convert at the same rate, and they earn different CTR curves. The page-type multipliers reflect typical CVR multiples we see across e-commerce and lead-gen sites: category 1.1×, product 1.5×, money-page 2.0×, blog 0.4× of the baseline CVR.

Is this the same model you use on paying clients?

Same formula, more inputs. On paying clients we layer in first-party GA4 conversion data, branded vs non-branded splits, and seasonal indices. The version on this page gives you ~80% of the directional answer in five minutes.

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Written and maintained by Dorian Menard — Founder, Search Scope. 13+ years executing SEO.
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